Scenario guides - Scenario 16C1 guide
Before reading, we recommend that you read the overview of the game according to 16C1 scenario from the international final in the 2016 season.
In scenario 16C1, you are presented with a young and dynamic company with small production capacity (4 machines, 21 assemblers), large amount of free cash (1 976 635) and profit (103 335). Market share occupied by your company and competitors is average (EU - 49%, Nafta - 19%, Internet - 54%) and allows you to quickly increase sales 2 times by expanding into free niches in sales market. 16C1 scenario is very similar to 15C1 scenario, but with less sales market size. Key parameters of the company and market situation:
- Market share occupied by all companies in the group: EU - 49%, Nafta - 19%, Internet - 54%
- Number of agents and distributors: EU - 3, Nafta - 1, Internet - 1
- Revenue: 1 314 236
- Costs: 1 210 901
- Profit: 103 335
- Overdraft: 0
- Available cash: 1 976 635
- Retained earnings: -43 916
- Share price: 108.0
- Number of machines: 4
- Number of pickers: 21
- Product quality: 1 product - 1.70*; 2 product - 2.63*; 3 product - 1.68*
- Corporate advertising - strong cumulative effect on demand, but the decision made has an impact only after a period (if the decision is made in 1 period, then the effect occurs in the 2 period). Most of the investment in corporate advertising should be directed to the market with the maximum revenue - EU and Internet. Total investments in corporate advertising should be kept in range of 100 - 150 with a gradual decrease in investments to 0 by 5 period.
- Direct advertising - cumulative effect on demand is negligible. The higher potential revenue from the sale of products in the market, the more you need to invest in direct advertising. Total direct advertising costs should be kept in the range of 4 - 8% of projected revenue.
Prices - price elasticity of demand depends on total market share of the companies in the group. The lower total market share, the greater effect of price changes on demand. Since total market share in EU and Internet is average (EU - 49%, Internet - 54%), and in Nafta is extremely low (EU - 19%), impact of price changes on demand is high. Prices should be set as low as possible to capture market share, up to 285 - 460 - 750. After total market share held by all companies in the group reaches 60 - 70%, prices should be raised to 300 - 500 - 800. As a result, company retains most of its market share from dumping and gains additional profit due to higher margins compared to competitors (investment return is one of the factors of goodwill).
Production plan - when calculating the number of products to ship to agents and distributors, do not ship partially filled containers. This is especially true for the Nafta market, where shipping 1 container costs 8 000. You should plan to ship containers with the maximum possible load, this will increase the company's profitability. Plan the volume of production depending on the demand forecast and the chosen strategy. Take the opportunity to leave some of the products in stock in order to evenly balance the load on production in the face of seasonal changes in demand and to avoid backlog (backlog is one of the factors of goodwill).
- Research and development - research and development (R&D) is one of the factors of goodwill. It is necessary to implement MAJOR developments, MINOR are implemented automatically. In the period when you are planning to implement MAJOR development, you should minimize stock of products in the warehouse, because you will have to destroy them at the scrap price. The history of the company indicates MAJOR developments that were not implemented in previous periods (1 product - 1 MAJOR). In 1 period, it is imperative to implement these MAJOR developments. Research and development forecasting and R&D budget planning should be carried out on the basis of the accumulated database of management reports. You can purchase optimal R&D plan for 16C1 scenario in our store.
- Assembly time - effect of increasing assembly time on demand occurs only after a period (if the decision is made in 1 period, then effect occurs in 2 period). If you decide to increase assembly time of the product, then you should increase the assembly time already in the 1 period, maximum in the 2 period. It is optimal to leave assembly time at the level of 115 - 165 - 325 or increase to 115% of standard value.
- Premium materials - use of premium materials is effective only at low cost of raw materials. Actual use of premium materials can have only 2 options (demand has a linear dependence on this factor) - if use of premium materials in production is economically effective, then we set 100%. If it is not economically effective, then set 0%. At current SPOT raw material price of 71 919, the use of premium materials is unprofitable.
Subcontracting - useful option for quickly scaling up production. There are only 2 alternatives to subcontracting - switching to higher number of shifts (2, 3) and purchasing new machines. Effective use of subcontracting requires high-quality production planning in next period. You should purchase such number of subcontracting details to allow machines and operators to work in 1 shift at 100% load (5 days a week). This will allow not to pay personnel for overtime and reduce the cost of production. If company has enough cash, and the prices for subcontracting details in next periods will increase, then you should purchase a stock of subcontracting details for several periods in advance at a minimum price.
Agents and distributors - number of agents and distributors depend on expected sales in EU and Nafta market. In common, optimal number of agents for EU market is 6 and 4 for Nafta market. Optimal number of agents and distributors should be hired in 1 period and not changed until the end of the game. In the 5 period, an additional 1 or 2 distributors should be hired to increase the company's goodwill (increase in the agent network is one of the factors of goodwill). You can purchase the optimal recruiting plan for agents and distributors for 16C1 scenario in our store.
- Raw materials - buy raw materials with a small reserve to have enough resources for production. It is useful to plan production in advance for all 5 periods and purchase materials for 3 and 6 month futures, so you can save money. Remember that when using subcontracting for production, then you do not need to buy raw materials, it is not required and will just insease stocks and decrease luquid assets.
- Maintenance hours - during operation, machines spend their resource and require constant maintenance. If machines are not serviced in a timely manner, their efficiency will gradually decrease and workers will spend more time manufacturing details, which will increase the cost of production. Optimal efficiency of the machines is about 92%, for which 15 hours of maintenance is sufficient per 1 working shift. Achieving a higher level of machine efficiency will require more maintenance hours, which is not economically effective. You can purchase the optimal maintenance plan for 16C1 scenario in our store.
- Shift level - production of products in 1 shift is always cheaper than in 2 shifts (all other things being equal), and production in 2 shifts is always cheaper than in 3 shifts (all other things being equal). Organize production to work in 1 shift and use subcontracting to compensate for the missing production capacity. In absence of opportunities to increase production in 1 period due to subcontracting, it is necessary to organize production to work in 2 or 3 shifts. Otherwise, you could lose market share because will not be able to supply your agents and distributors with enough products compared to more aggressive competitors.
- Ports - purchase enough ports to maintain no more than 0.1% of estimated level of failed visits. In 5 period number of ports can be doubled, because payment is made after the next period. Optimal number of ports for the 16C1 scenario is in the range of 9 - 11.
- Website development - website development increase demand only in Internet market. The more investments in website, the more demand growth you can expect. Optimal value of investment depends on size of Internet market and is in the range of 15 - 20. You can purchase optimal website development plan for 16C1 scenario in our store.
- Recruit assembly workers - cheap but not guaranteed way to increase the number of assembly workers. With a sufficient number of free assembly workers in labor market, the hiring of the required number is practically guaranteed. With a shortage of free assembly workers in the labor market, probability of successful hiring is reduced to 20 - 30% of the planned number. In such a situation, hiring even more assembly workers does not make sense, you will be wasting money. It is more effective to invest in factors that increase the chance of hiring assembly workers or reduce production. Current number of assembly workers (21) is not enough to produce required volume of products, taking into account the increase in sales market by 2 times. Additional assembly workers should be hired in 1 period. Optimal number of assembly workers for 16C1 scenario is at least 33.
- Train assembly workers - expensive but guaranteed way to increase the number of assembly workers. It is used in exceptional cases when the competition among companies for assembly workers in labor market is high. In any other situation, it would be cheaper to hire more assembly workers or raise wage rate to increase chances of personnel recruitment. For 16C1 scenario, it makes sense to train 2 - 3 assembly workers in 1 period, when competition for personnel between companies will be maximum, in order to ensure an increase number of assembly workers.
- Wage rate - it is impossible to reduce wage rate, this will automatically lead to dismissal of some of assembly workers and strike of those remaining in the company. Wage rate should be increased as needed (if there are not enough free assembly workers on labor market), because this leads to an increase in cost of production. For 16C1 scenario, it is recommended to maintain wage rate above market average level.
- Management budget - increase in management budget increases demand for products, reduces scrap rates, speeds up R&D research, reduces the risk of force majeure, increases the chance of hiring assembly workers, etc. Optimal value of management budget is 13 - 14% of administrative costs. A decrease in management budget can lead to dismissal of some of the assembly workers and strike of those remaining in the company, therefore, it can be applied only as a last resort when management budget is significantly exceeded over optimal value. For 16C1 scenario, set management budget in the range 120 - 140.
- Training - principle of training is similar to management budget, but has 10 times less effect. Unlike management budget, training can be reduced to 0 without risk of triggering a assembly workers strike or force majeure. Optimal training value is 1.3 - 1.4% of administrative costs. Training has a significant cumulative effect (similar to corporate advertising), it is recommended to invest most of the funds at the beginning of the game and gradually reduce it by 5 period. For 16C1 scenario, training should be set in the range of 12 - 14.
- Shares to issue/repurchase - issue of shares increases available liquidity of the company (liquidity is one of the factors of goodwill), therefore, during the game, you need to issue shares at least 2 times in amount of + 10% of the shareholders' capital (every calendar year). For greater effect, choose the right moment of issue and repurchase of shares - issue at the maximum share price, repurchase at the minimum price. So the company earns additional liquidity due to the difference in prices. In 16C1 scenario, it is recommended to issue shares +400 (+10%) in 1 period (2 quarter) at price of 108.0 per share, or delay issue for 3 period (4 quarter). In 4 period (1 quarter), it is necessary to repurchase shares -440 (-10%) in order to earn on difference in prices during subsequent issue. In 5 period (2 quarter) we provide final issue of shares +880 (+20%).
- Dividends - dividends are one of the factors of goodwill. Dividends can be paid only if retained earnings in the previous period are greater than 0. Dividend payments should be started as early as possible and carried out each period with a gradual increase in the amount of payments by 1.5 times.
- Term loans - loan that you can take, but cannot be repaid. Decision makes sense only when the company takes out an unsecured loan that cannot be repaid until the 5 period. Bank provides term loan at a rate of 10%, borrowing power loan at a rate of 10.5%. Term loan will allow you to borrow funds at a lower interest rate and save on debt servicing.
- Term deposit - all "free" funds is useful to put on deposit, which will give you small but additional income.
- Machines to buy - decision does not make sense, because it is more profitable to replace the lack of own production facilities with the help of subcontracting. Purchase new machine tool reduces current assets (cash) by 300,000, but increases non-current assets by only 292 500 (cost of equipment each period decreases by 2.5% due to depreciation).
- Machines to sell - decision makes sense only when company is limited by the free factory space and it is necessary to free up space for hiring assembly workers. This is a risky strategy, where it is important to remember that when selling machines, there are additional costs in the form of tax 60 000, which must be recouped in the following periods. With high competition it is very difficult to do this, therefore it is most effective to apply this strategy only in the early stages of the championship or in groups with an incomplete number of participating teams.
- Factory space - space limit limits the production capacity of the company. Free space should be monitored when purchasing new machines or hiring assembly workers. If there is not enough free space, then it will be impossible to purchase machines and hire assembly workers.
- Insurance plan - occurrence of force majeure has a specific sequence and amount of losses for each scenario. For a correct forecast of force majeure, 1 set of management reports is enough. You can purchase optimal insurance plan for 16C1 scenario in our store.
- Market shares - it is useful to buy information about market shares at least in 1 and 2 periods, when companies are increasing sales at a high rate. This way you can assess the free niches in the market and adjust the strategy for increasing your own market share (market share is one of the factors of goodwill). In subsequent periods, you can play without paid information, because market shares will grow insignificantly and their change can be predicted on the basis of previous management reports.
- Corporate activity - information about companies is useless during the game, but it will allow you to analyze the strategy of competitors in the subsequent analysis. Attempts to adjust your own strategy and adapt to the decisions of competitors (increase the advertising budget, reduce R&D, etc.) are likely will lead to defeat. If you are sure that you are winning or, on the contrary, that there is no chance of winning, then purchase all paid information - there will be something to exchange with competitors from the group after the game.
You can purchase in our store calculation model for 16C1 scenario, which is optimized with the tips above.